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Thursday, September 20, 2012

Poll: Slightly More Than Half of Likely Voters Support Prop. 30

About 52% of likely voters said they support a compromise tax hike plan -- listed as Proposition 30 on the November ballot -- while 40% said they oppose the initiative and 8% said they were unsure, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, the Los Angeles Times' "PolitiCal" reports (Megerian, "PolitiCal," Los Angeles Times, 9/19).

Details of Compromise Tax Hike Plan

Prop. 30 -- developed by Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and supporters of the "Millionaires Tax" would:

  • Increase the personal income tax by one percentage point for individuals who earn $250,000 annually or couples who earn $500,000 annually and by two percentage points for individuals who earn $300,000 annually or couples who earn $600,000 annually;
  • Extend the income tax increases on wealthy residents from five to seven years; and
  • Increase the sales tax by a quarter of a cent.

The sales tax hike would expire in four years (California Healthline, 8/21).

Other PPIC Poll Findings

According to the poll, 45% of likely voters said they support Proposition 38, a rival tax hike plan by attorney Molly Munger, while 45% said they oppose it ("PolitiCal," Los Angeles Times, 9/19). Prop. 38 would raise income tax for all residents, with highest earners seeing the largest hike. Most of the revenue would support education programs (California Healthline, 9/7).

Mark Baldassare -- PPIC president and CEO -- in a statement said, "Turnout will be an important ingredient in determining the November outcome of the two tax measures since these initiatives have much stronger support among young, Latino and women voters, and narrow majorities of independent voters are favoring both measures today" ("PolitiCal," Los Angeles Times, 9/19).

Additional findings from the PPIC poll include:

  • 47% of respondents said they disapprove of Brown's job performance, while 41% said they approve of it;
  • Nearly 66% said they believe California is moving in the wrong direction; and
  • Nearly 50% said they believe the state is in a "serious recession" (Gardner, U-T San Diego, 9/19).

New Field Poll Findings

Meanwhile, a new Field Poll finds that 51% of likely voters said they support Prop. 30, while 13% said they are undecided. The poll found that 41% of likely voters said they support Prop. 38.

The poll also found that 45% of likely voters said they support Proposition 39 -- a tax measure proposed by hedge fund manager Tom Steyer -- while 39% said they oppose it (Siders, Sacramento Bee, 9/20). Prop. 39 would raise about $1 billion annually by changing the state's corporate tax formula (California Healthline, 7/30).



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